Gu, Y., Wei, H. orcid.org/0000-0002-4704-7346, Boynton, R. et al. (2 more authors) (2019) System identification and data-driven forecasting of AE index and prediction uncertainty analysis using a new cloud-NARX model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, 124 (1). pp. 248-263. ISSN 2169-9402
Abstract
Severe geomagnetic storms caused by the solar wind disturbances have harmful influences on the operation of modern equipment and systems. The modelling and forecasting of AE index are extremely useful to understand the geomagnetic substorms. This study presents a novel cloud‐NARX model to predict AE index 1 hour ahead. The cloud‐NARX model provides AE index forecasting results, with a correlation coefficient of 0.87 on the data of whole year 2015. The benchmarks on the data of the two interested periods of 17‐21 March 2015 and 22‐26 June 2015 are presented. The presented model uses uncertainty ‘cloud’ model and cloud transformation to quantify the uncertainty throughout the structure detection, parameter estimation and model prediction. The new predicted band can be generated to forecast AE index with confidence interval. The proposed method provides a new way to evaluate the model based on uncertainty analysis, revealing the reliability of model and visualize the bias of model prediction.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | ©2018. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Engineering (Sheffield) > Department of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering (Sheffield) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 03 Jan 2019 13:49 |
Last Modified: | 02 Nov 2021 11:27 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | American Geophysical Union |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1029/2018JA025957 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:138998 |
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Filename: Gu_et_al-2019-Journal_of_Geophysical_Research__Space_Physics.pdf
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