Bemmaor, AC and Zheng, L orcid.org/0000-0003-0284-6862 (2018) The diffusion of mobile social networking: Further study. International Journal of Forecasting, 34 (4). pp. 612-621. ISSN 0169-2070
Abstract
In a recent study, Scaglione et al. (2015) analyzed the diffusion of mobile social networking in four G7 countries. Using Bass’s model and Bemmaor’s Gamma/Shifted Gompertz (G/SG) model, they found evidence of a left skew in the right-censored distributions of the times to adoption in three countries out of four. However, this conclusion relied on the skewness parameter of Bemmaor’s model. We reanalyze the data, making use of three special cases of the G/SG as well as the full version. Extending the data set to six countries, we show that (i) fitting the four models to the data does not allow us to discriminate between models, but (ii) forecasting the subsequent adoptions provides a strong support of right skewness in the data set: each country (except France) shows a substantial mass of later adopters of mobile social networking following an initial embrace of the access.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2018, International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. This is an author produced version of a paper published in the International Journal of Forecasting. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | Gamma/Shifted Gompertz (G/SG); Skew; Chasm; Chilling effects; Social media |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Business (Leeds) > Marketing Division (LUBS) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 10 May 2018 11:18 |
Last Modified: | 31 Jul 2020 00:38 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.04.006 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:130599 |
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