Abate, M, Vierth, I, Karlsson, R et al. (2 more authors) (2019) A disaggregate stochastic freight transport model for Sweden. Transportation, 46 (3). pp. 671-696. ISSN 0049-4488
Abstract
This paper presents estimation results for models of transport chain and shipment size choice, as well as an implementation of the estimated disaggregate models (for two commodity groups), in the context of the national freight transport model for Sweden. The new model is a disaggregate and stochastic (logit) model, whereas the existing Swedish national model is deterministic. One advantage of the new approach is that it bases the underlying behavior of shippers on a stronger empirical foundation (that is micro-data from the Swedish Commodity Flow Survey, CFS). Another advantage is that it overcomes a well-known disadvantage of deterministic models that lead to implausibly large responses to changes in scenario or policy variables. Although estimation and implementation of aggregate stochastic models were done before, in the context of a national freight transport forecasting model, we think this is the first implementation of disaggregate freight transport chain and shipment size models estimated on choice data for individual shipments, certainly in Europe. We carried out a number of model runs with both versions of the implemented model to compare elasticities and found that transport cost and time elasticities for tonne-km are smaller (in absolute values) in the disaggregate stochastic model than in their deterministic counterparts.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2018. This is an author produced version of a paper published in Transportation. The final publication is available at Springer via https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-018-9856-9. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | Stochastic; Disaggregate, freight model; Commodity flow survey; Mode choice; Shipment size |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > Institute for Transport Studies (Leeds) > ITS: Economics and Discrete Choice (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 19 Jan 2018 13:38 |
Last Modified: | 10 Jun 2019 11:21 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Springer Nature |
Identification Number: | 10.1007/s11116-018-9856-9 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:126412 |