Wheatley, Christopher J., Beale, Colin M. orcid.org/0000-0002-2960-5666, Bradbury, Richard B. et al. (3 more authors) (2017) Climate change vulnerability for species—Assessing the assessments. Global Change Biology. pp. 3704-3715. ISSN 1354-1013
Abstract
Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species at risk from global climate change, but the wide range of methodologies available makes it difficult for end users, such as conservation practitioners or policymakers, to decide which method to use as a basis for decision-making. In this study, we evaluate whether different assessments consistently assign species to the same risk categories and whether any of the existing methodologies perform well at identifying climate-threatened species. We compare the outputs of 12 climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies, using both real and simulated species, and validate the methods using historic data for British birds and butterflies (i.e. using historical data to assign risks and more recent data for validation). Our results show that the different vulnerability assessment methods are not consistent with one another; different risk categories are assigned for both the real and simulated sets of species. Validation of the different vulnerability assessments suggests that methods incorporating historic trend data into the assessment perform best at predicting distribution trends in subsequent time periods. This study demonstrates that climate change vulnerability assessments should not be used interchangeably due to the poor overall agreement between methods when considering the same species. The results of our validation provide more support for the use of trend-based rather than purely trait-based approaches, although further validation will be required as data become available.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2017 The Authors. |
Keywords: | biodiversity,climate change,conservation prioritization,policy,risk assessment,species conservation,vulnerability assessment |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of York |
Academic Units: | The University of York > Faculty of Sciences (York) > Biology (York) The University of York |
Depositing User: | Pure (York) |
Date Deposited: | 11 Jan 2018 11:40 |
Last Modified: | 16 Oct 2024 14:21 |
Published Version: | https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13759 |
Status: | Published |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1111/gcb.13759 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:126156 |
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Filename: Wheatley_et_al_2017_Global_Change_Biology.pdf
Description: Climate change vulnerability for species—Assessing theassessments