Millar, RJ, Fuglestvedt, JS, Friedlingstein, P et al. (7 more authors) (2017) Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C. Nature Geoscience, 10 (10). pp. 741-747. ISSN 1752-0894
Abstract
The Paris Agreement has opened debate on whether limiting warming to 1.5 °C is compatible with current emission pledges and warming of about 0.9 °C from the mid-nineteenth century to the present decade. We show that limiting cumulative post-2015 CO₂ emissions to about 200 GtC would limit post-2015 warming to less than 0.6 °C in 66% of Earth system model members of the CMIP5 ensemble with no mitigation of other climate drivers, increasing to 240 GtC with ambitious non-CO₂ mitigation. We combine a simple climate–carbon-cycle model with estimated ranges for key climate system properties from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Assuming emissions peak and decline to below current levels by 2030, and continue thereafter on a much steeper decline, which would be historically unprecedented but consistent with a standard ambitious mitigation scenario (RCP2.6), results in a likely range of peak warming of 1.2–2.0 °C above the mid-nineteenth century. If CO₂ emissions are continuously adjusted over time to limit 2100 warming to 1.5 °C, with ambitious non-CO₂ mitigation, net future cumulative CO₂ emissions are unlikely to prove less than 250 GtC and unlikely greater than 540 GtC. Hence, limiting warming to 1.5 °C is not yet a geophysical impossibility, but is likely to require delivery on strengthened pledges for 2030 followed by challengingly deep and rapid mitigation. Strengthening near-term emissions reductions would hedge against a high climate response or subsequent reduction rates proving economically, technically or politically unfeasible.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2017, Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. This is an author produced version of a paper published in Nature Geoscience. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number EU - European Union 603557 US Department of Energy Project 1552083 NERC NE/M017176/1 NERC NE/N006038/1 ECMRWF European Centre Medium No ref number NERC NE/P011160/1 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 30 Aug 2017 14:00 |
Last Modified: | 22 Mar 2018 15:42 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Nature Publishing Group |
Identification Number: | 10.1038/ngeo3031 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:120597 |
Commentary/Response Threads
- Millar, RJ, Fuglestvedt, JS, Friedlingstein, P, Rogelj, J, Grubb, MJ, Matthews, HD, Skeie, RB, Forster, PM, Frame, DJ and Allen, MR Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C. (deposited 30 Aug 2017 14:00) [Currently Displayed]