Cammarano, D, Rötter, RP, Asseng, S et al. (46 more authors) (2016) Uncertainty of wheat water use: Simulated patterns and sensitivity to temperature and CO₂. Field Crops Research, 198. pp. 80-92. ISSN 0378-4290
Abstract
Projected global warming and population growth will reduce future water availability for agriculture. Thus, it is essential to increase the efficiency in using water to ensure crop productivity. Quantifying crop water use (WU; i.e. actual evapotranspiration) is a critical step towards this goal. Here, sixteen wheat simulation models were used to quantify sources of model uncertainty and to estimate the relative changes and variability between models for simulated WU, water use efficiency (WUE, WU per unit of grain dry mass produced), transpiration efficiency (Teff, transpiration per kg of unit of grain yield dry mass produced), grain yield, crop transpiration and soil evaporation at increased temperatures and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]). The greatest uncertainty in simulating water use, potential evapotranspiration, crop transpiration and soil evaporation was due to differences in how crop transpiration was modelled and accounted for 50% of the total variability among models. The simulation results for the sensitivity to temperature indicated that crop WU will decline with increasing temperature due to reduced growing seasons. The uncertainties in simulated crop WU, and in particularly due to uncertainties in simulating crop transpiration, were greater under conditions of increased temperatures and with high temperatures in combination with elevated atmospheric [CO2] concentrations. Hence the simulation of crop WU, and in particularly crop transpiration under higher temperature, needs to be improved and evaluated with field measurements before models can be used to simulate climate change impacts on future crop water demand.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. This is an author produced version of a paper published in Field Crops Research. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | Multi-model simulation; Transpiration efficiency; Water use; Uncertainty; Sensitivity |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 18 Oct 2016 09:49 |
Last Modified: | 05 Sep 2017 22:51 |
Published Version: | https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2016.08.015 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.fcr.2016.08.015 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:106088 |