Liu, B, Asseng, S, Müller, C et al. (59 more authors) (2016) Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods. Nature Climate Change, 6. pp. 1130-1136. ISSN 1758-678X
Abstract
The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1℃ global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2016, Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. This is an author produced version of a paper published in Nature Climate Change. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | Global warming, wheat yield, climate impacts, impact method comparison, food security, temperature |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 29 Sep 2016 10:17 |
Last Modified: | 24 Sep 2019 18:05 |
Published Version: | https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3115 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Nature Publishing Group |
Identification Number: | 10.1038/nclimate3115 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:104901 |