Towards the prediction of carbon consequences in early design decisions

Manufacturing processes and associated supply chains are a recognised source of carbon emissions. In part these emissions are related to the design of the product itself. For example, decisions surrounding the selection of materials have a high impact on emissions and hence the embedded carbon in manufactured products. While there are tools that support the analysis of designs from environmental perspectives, they tend to require near complete design descriptions that are only available later in the design and development process when time and scope for change is limited, e.g., by scheduling and cost constraints. Further, there are often trade-offs to be made. For example, decisions related to the selection of materials impacts the embedded carbon of resources needed to manufacture a product but may also have a knock-on effect on transport and associated carbon emissions.

This paper reports early work exploring the feasibility of establishing engineering design tools that are suitable for use early in the design process when the design definition is incomplete and there is scope for exploring a wider range of design options. An illustrative case study was used to consider the quantification of carbon costs associated with material selection and associated transportation. Discrete event simulation models were derived from early design descriptions coupled with a range of alternative material and supply chain scenarios. Early results are promising in that they can be used to compare carbon consequences of alternative design directions.