A Year of COVID-19 and Crime in England and Wales

Charts show percent change in recorded crime and anti-social behaviour relative to what would be expected without the pandemic, for March 2020 to February 2021. Expected rates were calculated using 5-year ARIMA models. 95% confidence intervals are shaded. This spans first (~Apr-Jun 2020), second (Nov 2020) and third (here Jan-Feb) national lockdowns.

First national lockdown effects were larger than second, with third lockdown effects in 2021 often closer to the first. Crime effects overall reflected the stringency of movement restrictions, consistent with Halford et al.’s (2020) mobility theory of crime in the pandemic.