The importance of mathematical modelling in chemical risk assessment and the associated quantification of uncertainty

Computational models pervade modern toxicology and are becoming an accepted part of chemical risk assessments. Mathematical and statistical tools are versatile enough to capture information from wide arrays of existing data and from our mechanistic understanding of human biology and chemical reactions. They are more accessible than ever given the number of readily available guidance documents and software packages. In the present article, we will highlight the utility of modelling for next generation risk assessments whilst emphasising the importance of characterising and reporting uncertainty. The concepts herein are the foundations for a paradigm shift in toxicology where transparency about scientific understanding replaces faith in animal models.