Dessler, AE and Forster, PM orcid.org/0000-0002-6078-0171 (2018) An Estimate of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From Interannual Variability. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123 (16). pp. 8634-8645. ISSN 2169-897X
Abstract
Estimating the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; the equilibrium warming in response to a doubling of CO₂) from observations is one of the big problems in climate science. Using observations of interannual climate variations covering the period 2000 to 2017 and a model‐derived relationship between interannual variations and forced climate change, we estimate that ECS is likely 2.4–4.6 K (17–83% confidence interval), with a mode and median value of 2.9 and 3.3 K, respectively. This analysis provides no support for low values of ECS (below 2 K) suggested by other analyses. The main uncertainty in our estimate is not observational uncertainty but rather uncertainty in converting observations of short term, mainly unforced climate variability to an estimate of the response of the climate system to long‐term forced warming.
Metadata
Authors/Creators: |
|
---|---|
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2018, American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. This is an author produced version of a paper published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | equilibrium climate sensitivity; interannual variability |
Dates: |
|
Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 15 Oct 2018 12:43 |
Last Modified: | 02 Nov 2018 16:46 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | American Geophysical Union |
Identification Number: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD028481 |