Turner, TE, Swindles, GT, Charman, DJ et al. (5 more authors) (2016) Solar cycles or random processes? Evaluating solar variability in Holocene climate records. Scientific Reports, 6. 23961. ISSN 2045-2322
Abstract
Many studies have reported evidence for solar-forcing of Holocene climate change across a range of archives. These studies have compared proxy-climate data with records of solar variability (e.g. 14C or 10Be), or have used time series analysis to test for the presence of solar-type cycles. This has led to some climate sceptics misrepresenting this literature to argue strongly that solar variability drove the rapid global temperature increase of the twentieth century. As proxy records underpin our understanding of the long-term processes governing climate, they need to be evaluated thoroughly. The peatland archive has become a prominent line of evidence for solar forcing of climate. Here we examine high-resolution peatland proxy climate data to determine whether solar signals are present. We find a wide range of significant periodicities similar to those in records of solar variability: periods between 40–100 years, and 120–140 years are particularly common. However, periodicities similar to those in the data are commonly found in random-walk simulations. Our results demonstrate that solar-type signals can be the product of random variations alone, and that a more critical approach is required for their robust interpretation.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | (c) 2016, The Authors. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Geography (Leeds) > Ecology & Global Change (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 14 Jul 2016 15:02 |
Last Modified: | 14 Jul 2016 15:02 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep23961 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Nature Publishing Group |
Identification Number: | 10.1038/srep23961 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:97867 |
Commentary/Response Threads
- Turner, TE, Swindles, GT, Charman, DJ, Langdon, PJ, Morris, PJ, Booth, RK, Parry, LE and Nichols, JE Solar cycles or random processes? Evaluating solar variability in Holocene climate records. (deposited 14 Jul 2016 15:02) [Currently Displayed]