Maycock, AC (2016) The contribution of ozone to future stratospheric temperature trends. Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (9). pp. 4609-4616. ISSN 0094-8276
Abstract
The projected recovery of ozone from the effects of ozone depleting substances this century will offset part of the stratospheric cooling due to CO2, thereby affecting the detection and attribution of stratospheric temperature trends. Here, the impact of future ozone changes on stratospheric temperatures is quantified for three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) using simulations from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). For models with interactive chemistry, ozone trends offset ~50% of the global annual mean upper stratospheric cooling due to CO2 for RCP4.5, and 20% for RCP8.5 between 2006-15 and 2090-99. For RCP2.6, ozone trends cause a net warming of the upper and lower stratosphere. The misspecification of ozone trends for RCP2.6/4.5 in models that used the IGAC/SPARC Ozone Database causes anomalous warming (cooling) of the upper (lower) stratosphere compared to chemistry-climate models. The dependence of ozone chemistry on greenhouse gas concentrations should therefore be better represented in CMIP6.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
---|---|
Authors/Creators: |
|
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2016 The Author. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
Keywords: | CMIP5; atmospheric composition; climate modeling |
Dates: |
|
Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number NERC NE/M018199/1 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 05 Apr 2016 09:46 |
Last Modified: | 07 Oct 2017 04:50 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068511 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | American Geophysical Union |
Identification Number: | 10.1002/2016GL068511 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:97753 |