Are SMR a Reasonable Choice for Switzerland? An Application of the INCAS Model

Small countries can represent a suitable market for Small Medium Reactors (SMR). Among them Switzerland is one the more interesting since already hosts five commercial nuclear reactors; three of them are SMR (about 370 MWe) and two are large units (985 and 1165 MWe). Since the oldest units are about 40 year-old the Swiss utilities wereplanning to replace them while adding new nuclear power capacity to the portfolio mix.. Most recently, a radical re-thinking of the country energy policy is taking place as a Fukushima accident’s aftermath. Debate is about abandoning nuclear power and replacing it with renewable new capacity and import. “Economiesuisse, the umbrella organisation for Swiss business, considers a premature abandonment of atomic energy <irresponsible>. Without valid alternatives, Economiesuisse warns, abandoning the nuclear option will have serious consequences for Swiss industry”. Also “the environmental organisationsrecognise that the discussion on energy policy — which will really heat up with the parliamentary debate in June — is not solely an ideological one. Financial and economic considerations are likely to make all the difference” (L.Jorio, “What price a future without nuclear energy?”, www.swissinfo.ch, May 17, 2011).An objective and unbiased estimation of the cost of new nuclear power is essential to Policy Makers and a focus on SMR economic potential is a further contribution to the debate. SMR advanced passive safety features may cope with public concerns about safety, which has become a priority. Polimi’s INCAS model has been developed to compare the investment in SMR respect to LR and is able to assess the financial/economic indicators arising from these two alternative investment options. In particular the INCAS model provides the value of IRR (Internal Rate of Return), NPV (Net Present Value), Upfront investment, etc. A stochastic approach to the data elaboration and the implementation of a Montecarlo analysis provide the evaluation of the investment risk profile. Results show that investment returns are comparable for LR and SMR; however SMR require a lower upfront investment, thus representing lower sunk costs and more affordable and scalable investment option than monolithic LR.