Heimisson, ER, Hooper, A and Sigmundsson, F (2015) Forecasting the path of a laterally propagating dike. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 120 (12). pp. 8774-8792. ISSN 2169-9356
Abstract
An important aspect of eruption forecasting is predicting the path of propagating dikes. We show how lateral dike propagation can be forecast using the minimum potential energy principle. We compare theory to observed propagation paths of dikes originating at the Bárðarbunga volcano, Iceland, in 2014 and 1996, by developing a probability distribution for the most likely propagation path. The observed propagation paths agree well with the model prediction. We find that topography is very important for the model, and our preferred forecasting model considers its influence on the potential energy change of the crust and magma. We tested the influence of topography by running the model assuming no topography and found that the path of the 2014 dike could not be hindcasted. The results suggest that lateral dike propagation is governed not only by deviatoric stresses but also by pressure gradients and gravitational potential energy. Furthermore, the model predicts the formation of curved dikes around cone-shaped structures without the assumption of a local deviatoric stress field. We suggest that a likely eruption site for a laterally propagating dike is in topographic lows. The method presented here is simple and computationally feasible. Our results indicate that this kind of a model can be applied to mitigate volcanic hazards in regions where the tectonic setting promotes formation of laterally propagating vertical intrusive sheets.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2015 American Geophysical Union. Reproduced in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | dike propagation forecasting; eruption forecasting; Bardarbunga dike; lateral dike propagation |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst of Geophysics and Tectonics (IGT) (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number NERC No External Reference EU - European Union 308377 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 26 May 2016 14:50 |
Last Modified: | 28 Jun 2016 00:38 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2015JB012402 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | American Geophysical Union |
Identification Number: | 10.1002/2015JB012402 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:96992 |