Hoang, L and Dessai, S orcid.org/0000-0002-7879-9364 (2017) Water resource vulnerability: simulation and optimisation models. Proceedings of the ICE - Engineering Sustainability, 170 (4). 1500024. pp. 196-206. ISSN 1478-4629
Abstract
Approaches to adaptation to a changing climate in water resource planning have relied on both simulation and optimisation models. Simulation models project the impacts of climate change on water system performance while optimisation models show the optimal system performance under climate change conditions. This study uses two water resource models to analyse a water resource system in Sussex (south-east England) under climatic and socio-economic uncertainty. Overall, the simulation and optimisation models show structural model uncertainty. The simulation model highlights potential vulnerability in current operational practice while the optimisation model shows that the current system could be vulnerable to climate change and demand growth even under the best case scenario. The integrated scenarios in this study combine both types, including climate scenarios from four different climate products over the time periods of 2020s, 2030s and 2050s and socio-economic scenarios represented by different demand profiles. Our results show that water demand quickly becomes a controlling factor once it increases by more than 35% from the 2007 baseline level. Both models demonstrate a gradual increasing risk of supply deficit in the 2020s and the 2030s. Water deficit risks vary widely in the 2050s and are highly dependent on the socioeconomic scenarios.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | Published with permission by the ICE under the CC-BY license. (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
Keywords: | hydrology & water resource; sustainability; water supply |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Sustainability Research Institute (SRI) (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number EPSRC EP/G061181/2 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 21 Jan 2016 13:43 |
Last Modified: | 13 Nov 2017 19:21 |
Published Version: | https://doi.org/10.1680/jensu.15.00024 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Thomas Telford |
Identification Number: | 10.1680/jensu.15.00024 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:93979 |