Richardson, TB, Forster, PM, Andrews, T et al. (1 more author) (2016) Understanding the rapid precipitation response to CO2 and aerosol forcing on a regional scale. Journal of Climate, 29 (2). pp. 583-594. ISSN 0894-8755
Abstract
Precipitation exhibits a significant rapid adjustment in response to forcing, which is important for understanding long-term climate change. In this study, fixed sea surface temperature (SST) simulations are used to analyze the spatial pattern of the rapid precipitation response. Three different forcing scenarios are investigated using data obtained from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5): an abrupt quadrupling of CO2, an abrupt increase in sulfate, and an abrupt increase in all anthropogenic aerosol levels from preindustrial to present day. Analysis of the local energy budget is used to understand the mechanisms that drive the observed changes. It is found that the spatial pattern of the rapid precipitation response to forcing is primarily driven by rapid land surface temperature change, rather than the change in tropospheric diabatic cooling. As a result, the pattern of response due to increased CO2 opposes that due to sulfate and all anthropogenic aerosols, because of the opposing surface forcing. The rapid regional precipitation response to increased CO2 is robust among models, implying that the uncertainty in long-term changes is mainly associated with the response to SST-mediated feedbacks. Increased CO2 causes rapid warming of the land surface, which destabilizes the troposphere, enhancing convection and precipitation over land in the tropics. Precipitation is reduced over most tropical oceans because of a weakening of overturning circulation and a general shift of convection to over land. Over most land regions in the midlatitudes, circulation changes are small. Reduced tropospheric cooling therefore leads to drying over many midlatitude land regions.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | (c) 2016, American Meteorological Society. This is an open access article. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. |
Keywords: | Atmospheric circulation; Circulation/ Dynamics; Physical Meteorology and Climatology; Climate Change; Energy budget/balance; Hydrologic Cycle; Precipitation; Radiative Forcing |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number EPSRC EP/I014721/1 NERC NE/E010164/1 NERC NE/E016189/1 Royal Society WRM110067 US Department of Energy (PHS) Project 1552083 NERC NE/M017176/1 NERC NE/N006038/1 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 20 Jan 2016 12:47 |
Last Modified: | 20 Jan 2016 12:47 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0174.1 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | American Meteorological Society |
Identification Number: | 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0174.1 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:93881 |