Levine, NM, Zhang, K, Longo, M et al. (14 more authors) (2016) Ecosystem Heterogeneity Determines the Ecological Resilience of the Amazon to Climate Change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113 (3). pp. 793-797. ISSN 0027-8424
Abstract
Amazon forests, which store ∼50% of tropical forest carbon and play a vital role in global water, energy, and carbon cycling, are predicted to experience both longer and more intense dry seasons by the end of the 21st century. However, the climate sensitivity of this ecosystem remains uncertain: several studies have predicted large-scale die-back of the Amazon, whereas several more recent studies predict that the biome will remain largely intact. Combining remote-sensing and ground-based observations with a size- and age-structured terrestrial ecosystem model, we explore the sensitivity and ecological resilience of these forests to changes in climate. We demonstrate that water stress operating at the scale of individual plants, combined with spatial variation in soil texture, explains observed patterns of variation in ecosystem biomass, composition, and dynamics across the region, and strongly influences the ecosystem’s resilience to changes in dry season length. Specifically, our analysis suggests that in contrast to existing predictions of either stability or catastrophic biomass loss, the Amazon forest’s response to a drying regional climate is likely to be an immediate, graded, heterogeneous transition from high-biomass moist forests to transitional dry forests and woody savannah-like states. Fire, logging, and other anthropogenic disturbances may, however, exacerbate these climate change-induced ecosystem transitions.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
---|---|
Authors/Creators: |
|
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2015, The Author(s). Published by National Academy of Sciences. This is an author produced version of a paper published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. In order to comply with the publisher requirements the University does not require the author to sign a non-exclusive licence for this paper. |
Keywords: | Amazon forests; biomass; ecological resilience; climate change; ecosystem heterogeneity |
Dates: |
|
Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Geography (Leeds) > Ecology & Global Change (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number EU - European Union 291585 (ERC 2011 ADG) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 21 Dec 2015 15:37 |
Last Modified: | 08 Apr 2021 11:12 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1511344112 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | National Academy of Sciences |
Identification Number: | 10.1073/pnas.1511344112 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:92875 |