Maycock, AC and Hitchcock, P (2015) Do split and displacement sudden stratospheric warmings have different annular mode signatures? Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (24). pp. 10943-10951. ISSN 0094-8276
Abstract
Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) contribute to intraseasonal tropospheric forecasting skill due to their surface impacts. Recent studies suggest these impacts depend upon whether the polar vortex splits or is displaced during the SSW. We analyse the annular mode signatures of SSWs in a 1000 year IPSL-CM5A-LR simulation. Although small differences in the mean surface Northern Annular Mode (NAM) index following splits and displacements are found, the sign is not consistent for two independent SSW algorithms, and over 50 events are required to distinguish the responses. We use the winter-time correlation between extratropical lower stratospheric wind anomalies and the surface NAM index as a metric for two-way stratosphere-troposphere coupling, and find that the differences between splits and displacements, and between classification methodologies, can be simply understood in terms of their mean stratospheric wind anomalies. Predictability studies should therefore focus on understanding the factors that determine the persistence of these anomalies following SSWs.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2015, American Geophysical Union. Reproduced in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 21 Dec 2015 12:47 |
Last Modified: | 11 Apr 2017 05:45 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066754 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
Identification Number: | 10.1002/2015GL066754 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:92680 |