Nowack, PJ, Abraham, NL, Maycock, AC et al. (5 more authors) (2015) A large ozone-circulation feedback and its implications for global warming assessments. Nature Climate Change, 5 (1). pp. 41-45. ISSN 1758-678X
Abstract
State-of-the-art climate models now include more climate processes simulated at higher spatial resolution than ever. Nevertheless, some processes, such as atmospheric chemical feedbacks, are still computationally expensive and are often ignored in climate simulations. Here we present evidence that the representation of stratospheric ozone in climate models can have a first-order impact on estimates of effective climate sensitivity. Using a comprehensive atmosphere–ocean chemistry–climate model, we find an increase in global mean surface warming of around 1 °C (∼20%) after 75 years when ozone is prescribed at pre-industrial levels compared with when it is allowed to evolve self-consistently in response to an abrupt 4×CO₂ forcing. The difference is primarily attributed to changes in long-wave radiative feedbacks associated with circulation-driven decreases in tropical lower stratospheric ozone and related stratospheric water vapour and cirrus cloud changes. This has important implications for global model intercomparison studies in which participating models often use simplified treatments of atmospheric composition changes that are consistent with neither the specified greenhouse gas forcing scenario nor the associated atmospheric circulation feedbacks.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | (c) 2014, Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. This is an author produced version of a paper published in Nature Climate Change. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | Atmospheric chemistry; Atmospheric dynamics; Climate and Earth system modelling; Projection and prediction |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 07 Oct 2016 15:59 |
Last Modified: | 03 Nov 2017 03:44 |
Published Version: | https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2451 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Nature Publishing Group |
Identification Number: | 10.1038/NCLIMATE2451 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:92677 |