Heinen, E and Ogilvie, D (2016) Variability in baseline travel behaviour as a predictor of changes in commuting by active travel, car and public transport: a natural experimental study. Journal of Transport and Health, 3 (1). pp. 77-85. ISSN 2214-1413
Abstract
Purpose: To strengthen our understanding of the impact of baseline variability in mode choice on the likelihood of travel behaviour change. Methods: Quasi-experimental analyses in a cohort study of 450 commuters exposed to a new guided busway with a path for walking and cycling in Cambridge, UK. Exposure to the intervention was defined using the shortest network distance from each participant’s home to the busway. Variability in commuter travel behaviour at baseline was defined using the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, the number of different modes of transport used over a week, and the proportion of trips made by the main (combination of) mode(s). The outcomes were changes in the share of commute trips (i) involving any active travel, (ii) involving any public transport, and (iii) made entirely by car. Variability and change data were derived from a self-reported seven-day record collected before (2009) and after (2012) the intervention. Separate multinomial regression models were estimated to assess the influence of baseline variability on behaviour change, both independently and as an interaction effect with exposure to the intervention. Results: All three measures of variability predicted changes in mode share in most models. The effect size for the intervention was slightly strengthened after including variability. Commuters with higher baseline variability were more likely to increase their active mode share (e.g. for HHI: relative risk ratio [RRR] for interaction 3.34, 95% CI 1.41, 7.89) and decrease their car mode share in response to the intervention (e.g. for HHI: RRR 7.50, 95% CI 2.52, 22.34). Conclusions: People reporting a higher level of variability in mode choice were more likely to change their travel behaviour following an intervention. Future research should consider such variability as a potential predictor and effect modifier of travel and physical activity behaviour change, and its significance for the design and targeting of interventions.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
Keywords: | Behaviour change; Mode choice variability; Active travel; Public transport; Car use; Longitudinal |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > Institute for Transport Studies (Leeds) > ITS: Sustainable Transport Policy (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number TNO Nederlandse Organisatie Voor 451-13-034 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 01 Dec 2015 16:46 |
Last Modified: | 03 Jun 2016 11:42 |
Published Version: | https://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1016/j.jth.2015.11.002 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.jth.2015.11.002 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:92333 |
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