Mason, S., Farrow, T.F.D., Fawbert, D. et al. (5 more authors) (2009) The development of a clinically useful tool for predicting the development of psychological disorder following injury. British Journal of Clinical Psychology, 48. pp. 31-45. ISSN 0144-6657
Abstract
Objectives. To identify factors significantly associated with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), anxiety, and depression at 3 months post-injury; to develop a generic model to predict the occurrence of PTSD, anxiety, and depression at 3 months postinjury; and to validate this model in a test data set of patients. Design. Prospective cohort study.
Methods. Participants were 823 patients attending an emergency department (ED) following accidental injury. Baseline questionnaires were completed, with 1 and 3 months postal follow-ups. Predictor variables demonstrating significant associations with two of the three outcome measures (3-month HAD anxiety and depression scores and PTSD symptoms) were included in multivariate regression models for each outcome. Non-significant predictor variables were removed until all remaining independent variables made the most significant contribution to each of the three models. Models were validated using a test dataset.
Results. Previous history of mental health problems, neuroticism score and having PTSD symptoms at 1 month predicted adverse outcomes at 3 months. When used on the test datasets, the areas under the receiver operating curve (ROC) curve for the models predicting outcomes at 3 months were: PTSD 0.91 (sensitivity 88.5%); anxiety 0.87 (sensitivity 93.7%); and depression 0.87 (sensitivity 96.7%).
Conclusions. The final model performed moderately well across the three outcomes and may be useful clinically as a generic rule-out tool to identify those who will not require follow up, watchful waiting or intervention.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Keywords: | POSTTRAUMATIC-STRESS-DISORDER; RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED-TRIAL; MOTOR-VEHICLE ACCIDENTS; 2-YEAR PROSPECTIVE EVALUATION; SELF-HELP INFORMATION; TRAUMATIC INJURY; VIOLENT CRIME; RISK-FACTORS; VICTIMS; PTSD |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Social Sciences (Sheffield) > Information School (Sheffield) |
Depositing User: | Information Studies |
Date Deposited: | 14 Aug 2009 10:29 |
Last Modified: | 14 Aug 2009 10:29 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1348/014466508X344799 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | British Psychological Society |
Identification Number: | 10.1348/014466508X344799 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:9088 |