McNair, S and Feeney, A (2014) When does information about causal structure improve statistical reasoning? Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 67 (4). pp. 625-645. ISSN 1747-0218
Abstract
Base rate neglect on the mammography problem can be overcome by explicitly presenting a causal basis for the typically vague false positive statistic (Krynski and Tenenbaum, 2007). One account of this causal facilitation effect is that people make probabilistic judgements over intuitive causal models parameterised with the evidence in the problem. Poorly defined or difficult to map evidence interferes with this process, leading to errors in statistical reasoning. To assess whether the construction of parameterised causal representations is an intuitive or deliberative process, in Experiment 1 we combined a secondary load paradigm with manipulations of the presence or absence of an alternative cause in typical statistical reasoning problems. We found limited effects of a secondary load, no evidence that information about an alternative cause improves statistical reasoning, but some evidence that it reduces base rate neglect errors. In Experiments 2 and 3 where we did not impose a load, we observed causal facilitation effects. The amount of Bayesian responding in the causal conditions was impervious to the presence of a load (Experiment 1) and to the precise statistical information that was presented (Experiment 3). However, we found less Bayesian responding in the causal condition than did Krynski and Tenenbaum (2007). We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our findings and the suggestion that there may be population effects in the accuracy of statistical reasoning.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2013 The Experimental Psychology Society. This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology on 12 August 2013, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/17470218.2013.821709. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | Statistical reasoning; Bayesian reasoning; Base rate neglect; Causal reasoning |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Business (Leeds) > Management Division (LUBS) (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 05 May 2016 14:51 |
Last Modified: | 12 Apr 2017 00:24 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17470218.2013.821709 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Taylor & Francis |
Identification Number: | 10.1080/17470218.2013.821709 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:90094 |