Lunt, DJ, Haywood, AM, Schmidt, GA et al. (3 more authors) (2012) On the causes of mid-Pliocene warmth and polar amplification. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 321-32 (8). 128 - 138. ISSN 0012-821X
Abstract
The mid-Pliocene (~ 3 to 3.3 Ma ago), is a period of sustained global warmth in comparison to the late Quaternary (0 to ~ 1 Ma ago), and has potential to inform predictions of long-term future climate change. However, given that several processes potentially contributed, relatively little is understood about the reasons for the observed warmth, or the associated polar amplification. Here, using a modelling approach and a novel factorisation method, we assess the relative contributions to mid-Pliocene warmth from: elevated CO2, lowered orography, and vegetation and ice sheet changes. The results show that on a global scale, the largest contributor to mid-Pliocene warmth is elevated CO2. However, in terms of polar amplification, changes to ice sheets contribute significantly in the Southern Hemisphere, and orographic changes contribute significantly in the Northern Hemisphere. We also carry out an energy balance analysis which indicates that that on a global scale, surface albedo and atmospheric emmissivity changes dominate over cloud changes. We investigate the sensitivity of our results to uncertainties in the prescribed CO2 and orographic changes, to derive uncertainty ranges for the various contributing processes.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | (c) © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. This is an author produced version of a paper published in Earth and Planetary Science Letters. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy |
Keywords: | mid-Pliocene; polar amplification; paleoclimate modelling |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 26 Aug 2015 08:48 |
Last Modified: | 18 Jan 2018 05:37 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2011.12.042 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.epsl.2011.12.042 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:88182 |