Chipperfield, MP orcid.org/0000-0002-6803-4149, Dhomse, SS orcid.org/0000-0003-3854-5383, Feng, W orcid.org/0000-0002-9907-9120 et al. (3 more authors) (2015) Quantifying the ozone and ultraviolet benefits already achieved by the Montreal Protocol. Nature Communications, 6. 7233. ISSN 2041-1723
Abstract
Chlorine- and bromine-containing ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) are controlled by the 1987 Montreal Protocol. In consequence, atmospheric equivalent chlorine peaked in 1993 and has been declining slowly since then. Consistent with this, models project a gradual increase in stratospheric ozone with the Antarctic ozone hole expected to disappear by ∼2050. However, we show that by 2013 the Montreal Protocol had already achieved significant benefits for the ozone layer. Using a 3D atmospheric chemistry transport model, we demonstrate that much larger ozone depletion than observed has been avoided by the protocol, with beneficial impacts on surface ultraviolet. A deep Arctic ozone hole, with column values <120 DU, would have occurred given meteorological conditions in 2011. The Antarctic ozone hole would have grown in size by 40% by 2013, with enhanced loss at subpolar latitudes. The decline over northern hemisphere middle latitudes would have continued, more than doubling to ∼15% by 2013.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > National Centre for Atmos Science (NCAS) (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 28 May 2015 13:30 |
Last Modified: | 13 May 2019 04:46 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8233 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Nature Publishing Group |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1038/ncomms8233 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:86454 |