Fleming, EL, George, C, Heard, DE et al. (8 more authors) (2015) The impact of current CH4 and N2O atmospheric loss process uncertainties on calculated ozone abundances and trends. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 120 (10). pp. 5267-5293. ISSN 2169-897X
Abstract
The atmospheric loss processes of N2O and CH4, their estimated uncertainties, lifetimes, and impacts on ozone abundance and long-term trends are examined using atmospheric model calculations and updated kinetic and photochemical parameters and uncertainty factors from SPARC [2013]. The uncertainty ranges in calculated N2O and CH4 global lifetimes computed using the SPARC estimated uncertainties are reduced by nearly a factor of two compared with uncertainties from Sander et al. [2011]. Uncertainties in CH4 loss due to reaction with OH and O(1D) have relatively small impacts on present day global total ozone (±0.2-0.3%). Uncertainty in the Cl + CH4 reaction affects the amount of chlorine in radical vs. reservoir forms and has a modest impact on present day SH polar ozone (~±6%), and on the rate of past ozone decline and future recovery. Uncertainty in the total rate coefficient for the O(1D) + N2O reaction results in a substantial range in present day stratospheric odd nitrogen (±20-25%) and global total ozone (±1.5-2.5%). Uncertainty in the O(1D) + N2O reaction branching ratio for the O2 + N2 and 2*NO product channels results in moderate impacts on odd nitrogen (±10%) and global ozone (±1%),with uncertainty in N2O photolysis resulting in relatively small impacts (±5% in odd nitrogen, ±0.5% in global ozone). Uncertainties in the O(1D) + N2O reaction and its branching ratio also affect the rate of past global total ozone decline and future recovery, with a range in future ozone projections of ±1-1.5% by 2100, relative to present day.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2015, American Geophysical Union. This paper was published in Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Engineering & Physical Sciences (Leeds) > School of Chemistry (Leeds) > Physical Chemistry (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 09 Jun 2015 12:10 |
Last Modified: | 14 Mar 2016 06:12 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022067 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | American Geophysical Union |
Identification Number: | 10.1002/2014JD022067 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:85885 |