Asseng, S, Ewert, F, Martre, P et al. (50 more authors) (2015) Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production. Nature Climate Change, 5 (2). pp. 143-147. ISSN 1758-678X
Abstract
Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 °C to 32 °C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each °C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. This is an author produced version of a paper published in Nature Climate Change. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 01 Oct 2015 09:06 |
Last Modified: | 19 Mar 2019 18:56 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2470 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Nature Publishing Group |
Identification Number: | 10.1038/nclimate2470 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:85540 |
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