Jackson, L, Crook, J orcid.org/0000-0003-1724-1479, Jarvis, A et al. (4 more authors) (2015) Assessing the controllability of Arctic sea ice extent by sulfate aerosol geoengineering. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (4). pp. 1223-1231. ISSN 0094-8276
Abstract
In an assessment of how Arctic sea ice cover could be remediated in a warming world, we simulated the injection of SO2 into the Arctic stratosphere making annual adjustments to injection rates. We treated one climate model realization as a surrogate “real world” with imperfect “observations” and no rerunning or reference to control simulations. SO2 injection rates were proposed using a novel model predictive control regime which incorporated a second simpler climate model to forecast “optimal” decision pathways. Commencing the simulation in 2018, Arctic sea ice cover was remediated by 2043 and maintained until solar geoengineering was terminated. We found quantifying climate side effects problematic because internal climate variability hampered detection of regional climate changes beyond the Arctic. Nevertheless, through decision maker learning and the accumulation of at least 10 years time series data exploited through an annual review cycle, uncertainties in observations and forcings were successfully managed.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2015, The Authors.This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Reproduced in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number Royal Society WRM110067 EPSRC (Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council) EP/I014721/1 EU - European Union 603557 US Department of Energy Project 1552083 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 14 Jul 2015 09:07 |
Last Modified: | 29 Oct 2020 15:36 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062240 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | American Geophysical Union |
Identification Number: | 10.1002/2014GL062240 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:85096 |