Challinor, AJ, Parkes, B and Ramirez-Villegas, J (2015) Crop yield response to climate change varies with cropping intensity. Global Change Biology, 21 (4). 1679 - 1688. ISSN 1354-1013
Abstract
Projections of the response of crop yield to climate change at different spatial scales are known to vary. However, understanding of the causes of systematic differences across scale is limited. Here, we hypothesize that heterogeneous cropping intensity is one source of scale dependency. Analysis of observed global data and regional crop modelling demonstrate that areas of high vs. low cropping intensity can have systematically different yields, in both observations and simulations. Analysis of global crop data suggests that heterogeneity in cropping intensity is a likely source of scale dependency for a number of crops across the globe. Further crop modelling and a meta-analysis of projected tropical maize yields are used to assess the implications for climate change assessments. The results show that scale dependency is a potential source of systematic bias. We conclude that spatially comprehensive assessments of climate impacts based on yield alone, without accounting for cropping intensity, are prone to systematic overestimation of climate impacts. The findings therefore suggest a need for greater attention to crop suitability and land use change when assessing the impacts of climate change.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2015, Blackwell Publishing Ltd. This is an author produced version of a paper published in Global Change Biology. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | Climate change; Crop model; Crop yield; Food production; Land use |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 12 Mar 2015 13:09 |
Last Modified: | 01 May 2016 06:38 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12808 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Blackwell Publishing Ltd |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1111/gcb.12808 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:83635 |