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Wesselink, A, Challinor, AJ, Watson, J et al. (11 more authors) (2015) Equipped to deal with uncertainty in climate and impacts predictions: lessons from internal peer review. Climatic Change, 132 (1). pp. 1-14. ISSN 0165-0009
Abstract
The quantification of uncertainty is an increasingly popular topic, with clear importance for climate change policy. However, uncertainty assessments are open to a range of interpretations, each of which may lead to a different policy recommendation. In the EQUIP project researchers from the UK climate modelling, statistical modelling, and impacts communities worked together on ‘end-to-end’ uncertainty assessments of climate change and its impacts. Here, we use an experiment in peer review amongst project members to assess variation in the assessment of uncertainties between EQUIP researchers. We find overall agreement on key sources of uncertainty but a large variation in the assessment of the methods used for uncertainty assessment. Results show that communication aimed at specialists makes the methods used harder to assess. There is also evidence of individual bias, which is partially attributable to disciplinary backgrounds. However, varying views on the methods used to quantify uncertainty did not preclude consensus on the consequential results produced using those methods. Based on our analysis, we make recommendations for developing and presenting statements on climate and its impacts. These include the use of a common uncertainty reporting format in order to make assumptions clear; presentation of results in terms of processes and trade-offs rather than only numerical ranges; and reporting multiple assessments of uncertainty in order to elucidate a more complete picture of impacts and their uncertainties. This in turn implies research should be done by teams of people with a range of backgrounds and time for interaction and discussion, with fewer but more comprehensive outputs in which the range of opinions is recorded.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Editors: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © The Author(s) 2014. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Sustainability Research Institute (SRI) (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 13 Mar 2015 11:29 |
Last Modified: | 23 Jun 2023 21:44 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1213-1 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Springer Verlag |
Identification Number: | 10.1007/s10584-014-1213-1 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:83466 |
Available Versions of this Item
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Equipped to deal with uncertainty in climate and impacts predictions: lessons from internal peer review. (deposited 31 Oct 2014 13:31)
- Equipped to deal with uncertainty in climate and impacts predictions: lessons from internal peer review. (deposited 13 Mar 2015 11:29) [Currently Displayed]