Timothy, PR and Swindles, GT (2014) Influence of ocean–atmospheric oscillations on lake ice phenology in eastern North America. Climate Dynamics, 45 (9). pp. 2293-2308. ISSN 0930-7575
Abstract
Our results reveal long-term trends in ice out dates (1836–2013) for twelve lakes in Maine, New Brunswick and New Hampshire, in eastern North America. The trends are remarkably coherent between lakes (rs = 0.462–0.933, p < 0.01) and correlate closely with the March–April (MA) instrumental temperature records from the region (rs = 0.488–0.816, p < 0.01). This correlation permits use of ice out dates as a proxy to extend the shorter MA instrumental record (1876–2013). Mean ice out dates trended progressively earlier during the recovery from the Little Ice Age through to the 1940s, and gradually became later again through to the late 1970s, when ice out dates had returned to values more typical of the late nineteenth century. Post-1970’s ice out dates resumed trending toward earlier dates, with the twenty-first century being characterized by the earliest ice out dates on record. Spectral and wavelet time series analysis indicate that ice out is influenced by several teleconnections including the Quasi-biennial Oscillation, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, as well as a significant correlation between inland lake records and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The relative influence of these teleconnections is variable with notable shifts occurring after ~1870, ~1925, and ~1980–2000. The intermittent expression of these cycles in the ice out and MA instrumental record is not only influenced by absolute changes in the intensity of the various teleconnections and other climate drivers, but through phase interference between teleconnections, which periodically damps the various signals.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014. This is an author produced version of a paper published in Climate Dynamics. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2415-y |
Keywords: | Lake ice out phenology; AMO NAO ENSO QBO teleconnections; Climate change; March–April temperature; Time series analysis; Eastern North America |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Geography (Leeds) > Ecology & Global Change (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 19 Jan 2015 11:25 |
Last Modified: | 20 Apr 2017 09:36 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2415-y |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Springer Verlag |
Identification Number: | 10.1007/s00382-014-2415-y |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:82566 |