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Bruine de Bruin, W, van der Klaauw, W, Topa, G et al. (3 more authors) (2012) The effect of question wording on consumers' reported inflation expectations. Journal of Economic Psychology, 33 (4). 749 - 757. ISSN 0167-4870
Abstract
Economists and policy makers increasingly consult national household surveys asking individuals about their economic circumstances, financial decisions, and expectations for the future. For decades, the Reuters/Michigan Survey of Consumers and other national surveys have asked about expectations for “prices in general”, with responses being used by academic economists, policy makers, and central bankers. Although median responses track official inflation estimates, respondents exhibit considerable disagreement, with some reporting seemingly large overestimations. Here, we demonstrate that changes in the wording of survey questions about inflation expectations affect the central tendency of responses as well as their dispersion. We randomly assigned respondents to questions asking about “prices in general”, “inflation”, or “prices you pay”. Respondents’ expectations and perceptions were lower and less dispersed when questions asked about “inflation” instead of “prices in general” or “prices you pay”, with the latter two formulations eliciting similar response patterns. These question-wording effects were mediated by how much respondents thought of (extreme) personal price experiences when receiving questions about “prices in general” or “prices you pay”. Compared to questions about “inflation”, questions about “prices in general” and “prices you pay” elicited expectations that were more strongly correlated to expected increases in gas prices, which were relatively large and likely salient at that time.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2012. Elsevier. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Journal of Economic Psychology. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Journal of Economic Psychology, 33,(2012) DOI10.1016/j.joep.2012.02.001 |
Keywords: | pop |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Business (Leeds) > Management Division (LUBS) (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 07 Jan 2015 10:33 |
Last Modified: | 24 Oct 2016 21:18 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2012.02.001 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.joep.2012.02.001 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:81785 |
Available Versions of this Item
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The effect of question wording on consumers' reported inflation expectations. (deposited 01 Oct 2012 12:50)
- The effect of question wording on consumers' reported inflation expectations. (deposited 07 Jan 2015 10:33) [Currently Displayed]