Cubbon, RM, Woolston, A, Adams, B et al. (11 more authors) (2014) Prospective development and validation of a model to predict heart failure hospitalisation. Heart, 100 (12). 923 - 929. ISSN 1355-6037
Abstract
Objective: Acute heart failure syndrome (AHFS) is a major cause of hospitalisation and imparts a substantial burden on patients and healthcare systems. Tools to define risk of AHFS hospitalisation are lacking. Methods: A prospective cohort study (n=628) of patients with stable chronic heart failure (CHF) secondary to left ventricular systolic dysfunction was used to derive an AHFS prediction model which was then assessed in a prospectively recruited validation cohort (n=462). Results: Within the derivation cohort, 44 (7%) patients were hospitalised as a result of AHFS during 1 year of follow-up. Predictors of AHFS hospitalisation included furosemide equivalent dose, the presence of type 2 diabetes mellitus, AHFS hospitalisation within the previous year and pulmonary congestion on chest radiograph, all assessed at baseline. A multivariable model containing these four variables exhibited good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow p=0.38) and discrimination (C-statistic 0.77; 95% CI 0.71 to 0.84). Using a 2.5% risk cut-off for predicted AHFS, the model defined 38.5% of patients as low risk, with negative predictive value of 99.1%; this low risk cohort exhibited <1% excess all-cause mortality per annum when compared with contemporaneous actuarial data. Within the validation cohort, an identically applied model derived comparable performance parameters (C-statistic 0.81 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.87), Hosmer-Lemeshow p=0.15, negative predictive value 100%). Conclusions: A prospectively derived and validated model using simply obtained clinical data can identify patients with CHF at low risk of hospitalisation due to AHFS in the year following assessment. This may guide the design of future strategies allocating resources to the management of CHF.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | (c) 2014, Cubbon, RM, Woolston, A, Adams, B, Gale, CP, Gilthorpe, MS, Baxter, PD, Kearney, LC, Mercer, B, Rajwani, A, Batin, PD, Kahn, M, Sapsford, J, Witte, KK and Kearney, MT. This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 3.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Medicine and Health (Leeds) > Institute of Molecular Medicine (LIMM) (Leeds) > Section of Epidemiology and Biostatistics (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 08 Oct 2014 09:25 |
Last Modified: | 08 Oct 2014 09:28 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/heartjnl-2013-305294 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | BMJ Publishing Group |
Identification Number: | 10.1136/heartjnl-2013-305294 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:80667 |