Wadud, Z (2014) The asymmetric effects of income and fuel price on air transport demand. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 65. 92 - 102. ISSN 0965-8564
Abstract
Forecasts of passenger demand are an important parameter for aviation planners. Air transport demand models typically assume a perfectly reversible impact of the demand drivers. However, there are reasons to believe that the impacts of some of the demand drivers such as fuel price or income on air transport demand may not be perfectly reversible. Two types of imperfect reversibility, namely asymmetry and hysteresis, are possible. Asymmetry refers to the differences in the demand impacts of a rising price or income from that of a falling price or income. Hysteresis refers to the dependence of the impacts of changing price or income on previous history, especially on previous maximum price or income. We use US time series data and decompose each of fuel price and income into three component series to develop an econometric model for air transport demand that is capable of capturing the potential imperfectly reversible relationships and test for the presence or absence of reversibility. We find statistical evidence of asymmetry and hysteresis - for both, prices and income - in air transport demand. Implications for policy and practice are then discussed.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | (c) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 65, (2014) DOI 10.1016/j.tra.2014.04.001 |
Keywords: | Air transport demand; Asymmetric response; Econometric modelling; Hysteresis; Imperfect reversibility |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Engineering & Physical Sciences (Leeds) > School of Chemical & Process Engineering (Leeds) > Energy Research Institute (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 17 Oct 2014 09:03 |
Last Modified: | 17 Jan 2018 00:47 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2014.04.001 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.tra.2014.04.001 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:80642 |