Gordon, ND, Jonko, AK, Forster, PM et al. (1 more author) (2013) An observationally based constraint on the water-vapor feedback. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118 (22). 12435 - 12443. ISSN 2169-897X
Abstract
The increase in atmospheric concentrations of water vapor with global warming is a large positive feedback in the climate system. Thus, even relatively small errors in its magnitude can lead to large uncertainties in predicting climate response to anthropogenic forcing. This study incorporates observed variability of water vapor over 2002-2009 from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder instrument into a radiative transfer scheme to provide constraints on this feedback. We derive a short-term water vapor feedback of 2.2 ± 0.4 WmK. Based on the relationship between feedback derived over short and long timescales in twentieth century simulations of 14 climate models, we estimate a range of likely values for the long-term twentieth century water vapor feedback of 1.9 to 2.8 WmK. We use the twentieth century simulations to determine the record length necessary for the short-term feedback to approach the long-term value. In most of the climate models we analyze, the short-term feedback converges to within 15% of its long-term value after 25 years, implying that a longer observational record is necessary to accurately estimate the water vapor feedback. Key Points The water vapor feedback from observations is greater than most models predict The water vapor feedback from interannual variability is an underestimate 20 years of observations are needed to constrain the water vapor feedback.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres published by Wiley on behalf of the American Geophysical Union. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
Keywords: | water vapor; climate feedback |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 28 Aug 2014 15:16 |
Last Modified: | 28 Aug 2014 15:16 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020184 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | American Geophysical Union |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1002/2013JD020184 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:80133 |