Wadud, Z, Dey, HS, Kabir, MA et al. (1 more author) (2011) Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh. Energy Policy, 39 (11). 7372 - 7380. ISSN 0301-4215
Abstract
Natural gas is the major indigenous source of energy in Bangladesh and accounts for almost one-half of all primary energy used in the country. Per capita and total energy use in Bangladesh is still very small, and it is important to understand how energy, and natural gas demand will evolve in the future. We develop a dynamic econometric model to understand the natural gas demand in Bangladesh, both in the national level, and also for a few sub-sectors. Our demand model shows large long run income elasticity – around 1.5 – for aggregate demand for natural gas. Forecasts into the future also show a larger demand in the future than predicted by various national and multilateral organizations. Even then, it is possible that our forecasts could still be at the lower end of the future energy demand. Price response was statistically not different from zero, indicating that prices are possibly too low and that there is a large suppressed demand for natural gas in the country.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2014, Elsevier. This is an author produced version of a paper published in Energy Policy. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | Natural gas; energy demand; dynamic econometric model |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Engineering & Physical Sciences (Leeds) > School of Chemical & Process Engineering (Leeds) > Energy Research Institute (Leeds) The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > Institute for Transport Studies (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 04 Jun 2014 10:56 |
Last Modified: | 16 Nov 2016 01:12 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.08.066 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.08.066 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:78980 |