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Norman, P orcid.org/0000-0002-6211-1625, Rees, P orcid.org/0000-0002-4276-9091 and Wohland, P (2014) The use of a new indirect method to estimate ethnic-group fertility rates for subnational projections for England. Population Studies: a journal of demography, 68 (1). pp. 43-64. ISSN 0032-4728
Abstract
To project the ethnic-group populations of local authorities in England to 2051, estimates of ethnic-specific fertility rates were needed. In the absence of ethnic information on birth records, we developed indirect estimation methods that use a combination of vital statistics, the census (both microdata and aggregate tables), and survey data (Labour Force Survey). We estimated age-specific and total fertility rates successively for five broad ethnic groups encompassed by all data-sets, and for eight ethnic groups encompassed by the 1991 and 2001 Censuses for England. We then used census data to disaggregate the estimates to the 16 ethnic groups required for the subnational projections and the Hadwiger function to estimate single-year-of-age estimates. We estimated the uncertainty around the fertility estimates and used a logistic model to project rates to 2021, after which we assumed rates would remain constant.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2013, Taylor & Francis. This is an author produced version of a paper published in Population Studies: a journal of demography. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | Ethnic fertility; birth statistics; subnational estimates; ethnic projections |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Geography (Leeds) > Centre for Spatial Analysis & Policy (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 27 Mar 2014 12:03 |
Last Modified: | 26 Apr 2019 14:41 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2013.810300 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Taylor & Francis |
Identification Number: | 10.1080/00324728.2013.810300 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:78317 |
Available Versions of this Item
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The use of a new indirect method to estimate ethnic-group fertility rates for subnational projections for England. (deposited 21 Nov 2013 10:11)
- The use of a new indirect method to estimate ethnic-group fertility rates for subnational projections for England. (deposited 27 Mar 2014 12:03) [Currently Displayed]