Ageing and depopulation in Japan: understanding the consequences for East and Southeast Asia in the 21st century

Japan is one of the most rapidly ageing and depopulating countries in the world. Government projections indicate that Japan may shrink 32 per cent from the high of 128 million in 2008 to approximately 87 million by 2060, due to a sustained fall in rates of human re-production. Whereas in 1947 each woman expected to give birth in her lifetime to 4.54 children, this had dropped below the population replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman by 1974, and remained at below replacement to stand at 1.39 children in 2010.

Overall, population reduction is probably good news for Japan, and possibly other countries too, in that it provides opportunities for reconfiguring living conditions and it may help to reduce human pressures on the natural environment. Nevertheless, ageing and depopulation bring with them consequences for affected regions, and policies may need to be developed to deal with these. What is interesting about Japan’s situation as a pioneer shrinking society is how the outcomes of these processes and policies might inform us about the prospects for other East and South-east Asian countries such as China, South Korea, and Thailand in the years and decades to come, as they too experience similar developmental pathways.

In this briefing paper I will outline the ways in which Japan’s demography has been changing and make comparisons with China and South Korea. I will then describe some of the impacts in Japan’s non-metropolitan regions, focusing on the issue of over-capacity. I will conclude by looking to the future.