Hawkins, E, Osborne, TM, Ho, CK et al. (1 more author) (2013) Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: An idealised case study over Europe. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 170. 19 - 31. ISSN 0168-1923
Abstract
Producing projections of future crop yields requires careful thought about the appropriate use of atmosphere-ocean global climate model (AOGCM) simulations. Here we describe and demonstrate multiple methods for 'calibrating' climate projections using an ensemble of AOGCM simulations in a 'perfect sibling' framework. Crucially, this type of analysis assesses the ability of each calibration methodology to produce reliable estimates of future climate, which is not possible just using historical observations. This type of approach could be more widely adopted for assessing calibration methodologies for crop modelling. The calibration methods assessed include the commonly used 'delta' (change factor) and 'nudging' (bias correction) approaches. We focus on daily maximum temperature in summer over Europe for this idealised case study, but the methods can be generalised to other variables and other regions. The calibration methods, which are relatively easy to implement given appropriate observations, produce more robust projections of future daily maximum temperatures and heat stress than using raw model output. The choice over which calibration method to use will likely depend on the situation, but change factor approaches tend to perform best in our examples. Finally, we demonstrate that the uncertainty due to the choice of calibration methodology is a significant contributor to the total uncertainty in future climate projections for impact studies. We conclude that utilising a variety of calibration methods on output from a wide range of AOGCMs is essential to produce climate data that will ensure robust and reliable crop yield projections.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2013, Elsevier Masson. This is an author produced version of a paper published in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | Calibration; climate projections; climate model; crop model; Delta method; weather generator; bias correction |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 06 Mar 2014 14:42 |
Last Modified: | 25 Jan 2018 17:24 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.04.007 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Elsevier Masson |
Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.04.007 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:77973 |