Challinor, AJ, Thornton, P and Smith, MS (2013) Use of agro-climate ensembles for quantifying uncertainty and informing adaptation. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 170. 2 - 7. ISSN 0168-1923
Abstract
Significant progress has been made in the use of ensemble agricultural and climate modelling, and observed data, to project future productivity and to develop adaptation options. An increasing number of agricultural models are designed specifically for use with climate ensembles, and improved methods to quantify uncertainty in both climate and agriculture have been developed. Whilst crop-climate relationships are still the most common agricultural study of this sort, on-farm management, hydrology, pests, diseases and livestock are now also examined. This paper introduces all of these areas of progress, with more detail being found in the subsequent papers in the special issue. Remaining scientific challenges are discussed, and a distinction is developed between projection- and utility-based approaches to agro-climate ensemble modelling. Recommendations are made regarding the manner in which uncertainty is analysed and reported, and the way in which models and data are used to make inferences regarding the future. A key underlying principle is the use of models as tools from which information is extracted, rather than as competing attempts to represent reality.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
---|---|
Authors/Creators: |
|
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | (c) 2013, Elsevier Masson. This is an author produced version of a paper published in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | Climate models; Crop models; Ensembles; Climate change; Adaptation; Food security; Climate variability; Uncertainty; Crop yield |
Dates: |
|
Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 28 Feb 2014 12:40 |
Last Modified: | 23 Jun 2023 21:37 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.09.007 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Elsevier Masson |
Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.09.007 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:77877 |