Roelich, K, Dawson, DA, Purnell, P et al. (4 more authors) (2014) Assessing the dynamic material criticality of infrastructure transitions: A case of low carbon electricity. Applied Energy, 123. pp. 378-386. ISSN 0306-2619
Abstract
Decarbonisation of existing infrastructure systems requires a dynamic roll-out of technology at an unprecedented scale. The potential disruption in supply of critical materials could endanger such a transition to low-carbon infrastructure and, by extension, compromise energy security more broadly because low carbon technologies are reliant on these materials in a way that fossil-fuelled energy infrastructure is not. Criticality is currently defined as the combination of the potential for supply disruption and the exposure of a system of interest to that disruption. We build on this definition and develop a dynamic approach to quantifying criticality, which monitors the change in criticality during the transition towards a low-carbon infrastructure goal. This allows us to assess the relative risk of different technology pathways to reach a particular goal and reduce the probability of being ‘locked in’ to currently attractive but potentially future-critical technologies. To demonstrate, we apply our method to criticality of the proposed UK electricity system transition, with a focus on neodymium. We anticipate that the supply disruption potential of neodymium will decrease by almost 30% by 2050; however, our results show the criticality of low carbon electricity production increases ninefold over this period, as a result of increasing exposure to neodymium-reliant technologies.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Open access under CC BY license. |
Keywords: | Critical materials; Infrastructure transitions; Low carbon technology; Supply disruption; Neodymium; Criticality |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Engineering & Physical Sciences (Leeds) > School of Civil Engineering (Leeds) > Institute for Resilient Infrastructure (Leeds) The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Sustainability Research Institute (SRI) (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 27 Feb 2014 12:16 |
Last Modified: | 20 Jul 2017 20:41 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.01.052 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.01.052 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:77862 |