Evans, JAJ and Ivaldi, G (2008) Forecasting the Extreme Right vote in France (1984-2007). French Politics: a journal of contemporary and comparative French politics, policy and society, 6 (2). 137 - 151. ISSN 1476-3419
Abstract
This article identifies an issue model forecasting Extreme Right results in France between 1984 and 2007. Building upon the VP-function literature, this article looks at developing a model of electoral support for the Front National and Jean-Marie Le Pen, based upon the key political issues that are seen as motivating votes for this party: unemployment, crime and immigration. Controlling for political context through election type and opposition popularity, we find that the vote is linked to variation in macro-indicators of these issues and that consequently the Extreme Right vote in France is far from unpredictable, as some analyses have previously suggested.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Keywords: | Elections; Extreme Right; France; Forecast; Election forecasting; Economic models; VP function |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Education, Social Sciences and Law (Leeds) > School of Politics & International Studies (POLIS) (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 12 Feb 2014 10:41 |
Last Modified: | 15 Sep 2014 02:03 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1057/fp.2008.1 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Palgrave Macmillan |
Identification Number: | 10.1057/fp.2008.1 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:77672 |