Evans, JAJ and Ivaldi, G (2010) Comparing forecasts of radical right voting in four European countries (1973–2008). International Journal of Forecasting, 26 (1). 82 - 97. ISSN 0169-2070
Abstract
Radical Right Parties (RRPs) have traditionally been seen as ‘hard cases’ to forecast, with unstable voter bases affected by short-term influences. Building upon our previous work on forecasting the French Front National’s vote across time, we construct a comparable model for three other European countries–Austria, Denmark and Norway–with significant RRPs, using economic, cultural and political predictors. We find that the model performs surprisingly well, with the partial exception of Norway, and provides an accurate forecast of RRP electoral performance which improves upon naive endogenous models and, significantly, upon polling estimates. Moreover, the model is firmly rooted in existing explanations of RRP success, allowing a robust explanation not only of variation in these parties’ votes, but also of less successful estimates in a small number of country-specific contexts. Overall, we find that standard approaches to electoral forecasting in fact offer a useful tool in the analysis of RRPs.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Keywords: | Elections; Forecast; Extreme Right; Electoral forecasts; Radical Right; Regression; Time series |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Education, Social Sciences and Law (Leeds) > School of Politics & International Studies (POLIS) (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 12 Feb 2014 10:38 |
Last Modified: | 04 Nov 2016 02:20 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.04.001 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.04.001 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:77671 |