Boynton, R.J., Balikhin, M.A., Billings, S.A. et al. (1 more author) (2013) Application of nonlinear autoregressive moving average exogenous input models to Geospace: advances in understanding and space weather forecasts. Annales Geophysicae, 31. pp. 1579-1589. ISSN 0992-7689
Abstract
The nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs (NARMAX) system identification technique is applied to various aspects of the magnetospheres dynamics. It is shown, from an example system, how the inputs to a system can be found from the error reduction ratio (ERR) analysis, a key concept of the NARMAX approach. The application of the NARMAX approach to the Dst (disturbance storm time) index and the electron fluxes at geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) are reviewed, revealing new insight into the physics of the system. The review of studies into the Dst index illustrate how the NARMAX approach is able to find a coupling function for the Dst index from data, which was then analytically justified from first principles. While the review of the electron flux demonstrates how NARMAX is able to reveal new insight into the physics of the acceleration and loss processes within the radiation belt.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2013 Author(s). This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/) |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Engineering (Sheffield) > Department of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering (Sheffield) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 09 Dec 2013 09:40 |
Last Modified: | 07 Jun 2024 14:47 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | European Geosciences Union |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.5194/angeo-31-1579-2013 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:77092 |