Basso, A. and Cuberes, D. (2013) Fertility and financial development: evidence from U.S. counties in the 19th century. Research Report. Department of Economics, University of Sheffield ISSN 1749-8368
Abstract
This paper uses data on fertility and financial development in 19th century U.S. to test the hypothesis that more developed local financial markets reduce the incentives for families to have a large offspring to provide for them at old age, the so-called old-age security hypothesis. We find that the presence of banks is associated to lower children-to-women ratios and crude birth rates even after controlling for a large set of socio-economic factors. To account for possible endogeneity of bank location we instrument for the presence of some banking activity in a given county in 1840 with the existence of at least a bank in that county in 1820. The results of using this identification strategy are in line with the OLS ones, namely that fertility in 1850 is negatively affected by financial development. Next we explore the relationship between banking activity and fertility in the state of Pennsylvania, where, by law, most banks were created before 1820. This allows us to treat banks in 1840 as exogenous and confirm the existence of a strong negative causal effect from financial development to fertility. Finally, we show that our results are robust to measuring banking activity with the number of cities with at least a bank in a given county.
Metadata
Item Type: | Monograph |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | The Sheffield Economics Research Paper (SERP) series offers a forum for the research output of the academic staff and research students of the Department of Economics, University of Sheffield. Papers are reviewed for quality and presentation by a departmental editor. However, the contents and opinions expressed remain the responsibility of the authors. All papers may be downloaded free on the understanding that the contents are preliminary and therefore permission from the author(s) should be sought before they are referenced. |
Keywords: | fertility; old-age security hypothesis; financial development; 19th century U.S.; |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Social Sciences (Sheffield) > Department of Economics (Sheffield) > Sheffield Economics Research Papers Series |
Depositing User: | Miss Anthea Tucker |
Date Deposited: | 04 Oct 2013 12:23 |
Last Modified: | 26 Oct 2016 05:14 |
Published Version: | http://www.shef.ac.uk/economics/research/serps/yea... |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Department of Economics, University of Sheffield |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:76621 |