MACROWater: a Top-down, Policy-driven Model for Forecasting Domestic Water Demand

MACROWater is a top-down domestic water demand model developed for the WaND project (Water Cycle Management for New Developments). Forecasts have been produced for all local authorities in England and Wales. They can be aggregrated for different reporting areas (such as Government Office Regions, Sustainable Communities and water companies). Sustainable community is the official term for key strategic areas, earmarked for rapid expansion of housing supply (such as the M11 corridor, Ashford, Milton Keynes). This model description uses the UK's biggest Sustainable Community, Thames Gateway, as the example case study.

Utilising Domestic Consumption Monitors from the water companies supplying this area, combined with housing, household and population projections, the authors have modelled domestic demand in detail. Alternative futures are considered using a set of urban water management scenarios, which represent different levels of adoption of water-saving technologies and different consumption patterns. For example, under the greener scenarios, new homes are fitted out with water-efficient equipment, allied with incentives to replace/refurbish as much old housing stock as possible. The modelling work demonstrates that increased demand from new developments can be accommodated but only through strict demand management and some new water supply measures.