Caglayan, M., Kandemir, O. and Mouratidis, K. (2011) Real effects of inflation uncertainty in the US. Working Paper. Department of Economics, University of Sheffield ISSN 1749-8368
Abstract
We empirically investigate the effects of inflation uncertainty on output growth for the US using both monthly and quarterly data over 1985-2009. Employing a Markov regime switching approach to model output dynamics, we show that inflation uncertainty obtained from a Markov regime switching GARCH model exerts a negative and regime dependant impact on output growth. In particular, we show that the negative impact of inflation uncertainty on output growth is almost 4.5 times higher during the low growth regime than that during the high growth regime. We verify the robustness of our findings using quarterly data.
Metadata
Item Type: | Monograph |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | The Sheffield Economics Research Paper (SERP) series offers a forum for the research output of the academic staff and research students of the Department of Economics, University of Sheffield. Papers are reviewed for quality and presentation by a departmental editor. However, the contents and opinions expressed remain the responsibility of the authors. All papers may be downloaded free on the understanding that the contents are preliminary and therefore permission from the author(s) should be sought before they are referenced. |
Keywords: | growth, inflation uncertainty, Markov-switching modeling, Markov-switching GARCH |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Social Sciences (Sheffield) > Department of Economics (Sheffield) > Sheffield Economics Research Papers Series |
Depositing User: | Repository Officer |
Date Deposited: | 21 Feb 2011 17:01 |
Last Modified: | 18 Jun 2014 05:22 |
Published Version: | http://www.shef.ac.uk/economics/research/serps/yea... |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Department of Economics, University of Sheffield |
Identification Number: | Sheffield Economic Research Paper Series 2011002 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:42869 |