War-associated livestock losses and abrupt livelihood asset depletion under siege in Tigray, Ethiopia

War imposes profound and often under-quantified shocks on rural livelihoods, particularly in agro-pastoral systems where livestock serve as essential, non-liquid assets. The 2020–2022 Tigray war in northern Ethiopia provides an important case for quantifying livestock depletion, economic losses, and post-war recovery. Employing a quasi-experimental, retrospective design, we surveyed 1200 households across twelve matched sites—six battle and six control sites—covering three periods: pre-war (November 2018–October 2020), war (November 2020–November 2022), and post-war (December 2022–March 2024). Livestock losses were categorized by cause (slaughter, disease, looting, depredation, and theft) and economically valued using stable 2023–2024 market prices. A generalized linear mixed model was used to assess differences in livestock-loss rates across sites and periods. Aggregate livestock losses increased from 187 pre-war to 6998 during the war at battle sites (∼3643%; 11.66 animals per household during the war), compared with an increase from 359 to 1949 at control sites (∼443%; 3.25 animals per household during the war), with a highly significant site × period interaction (χ² = 963.18, df = 2, p < 0.0001) and an incidence rate ratio of 4.10 (95% CI: 3.92–4.28). Wartime losses were dominated by human-mediated mechanisms, particularly military slaughter and looting, resulting in a 2.6-fold difference in mean household economic losses between battle and control sites (USD 1717 vs. USD 657). Slaughter-related losses were nearly eight times higher than theft-related losses (rate ratio = 7.57, 95% CI: 7.10–8.06), while cattle and goat losses through slaughter or looting were >12-fold and 18-fold higher, respectively, at battle sites than at control sites. These patterns are strongly consistent with targeted disruption of livestock assets during the war. Regional extrapolation, based on assumptions regarding the proportion of households directly affected and livestock valuation, estimated total livestock-asset losses of USD 2.2–2.3 billion (95% CI: USD 1.9–2.6 billion), equivalent to 19.6–21.2 million animals. Post-war losses declined following the cessation of combat, but the decline was 83% weaker at battle sites than at control sites, while disease and predation remained important sources of post-war losses. Overall, the findings demonstrate substantial wartime depletion of livestock assets and persistent constraints on post-war recovery, highlighting the implications of war-related asset loss for livelihood resilience and sustainable recovery in war-affected agro-pastoral systems.