Temperature mediates variation in avian sensitivity to forest cover

Emerging evidence shows that responses to deforestation can differ both across species and among populations of the same species. The reasons underlying these complex patterns are unclear, and this lack of clarity is a barrier to accurate monitoring and prediction of biodiversity change. Using data from 2,262 bird species across 7,326 sites from all forested continents, we show that between-species and within-species variations in responses to forest cover are mediated by temperature. Populations in warmer macroclimates tend to decline in incidence in deforested landscapes because hotter microclimates push them closer to their species’ realized upper thermal tolerance limits. By contrast, populations in cooler macroclimates tend to be less affected by or even benefit from deforestation, as microclimatic temperatures are pushed closer to more optimal temperatures. Our findings offer an empirically grounded framework for biodiversity models that move beyond fixed species responses and incorporate interactions between temperature and land-use change.