Wang, H. orcid.org/0000-0003-4548-9252, Liu, J. orcid.org/0000-0002-5745-6311, Holden, J. orcid.org/0000-0002-1108-4831 et al. (3 more authors) (2026) Climate warming drives thermal shocks and accelerated freshwater habitat fragmentation. Nature Climate Change, 16. pp. 1061-1067. ISSN: 1758-678X
Abstract
Climate change is exposing freshwater fish to warmer temperatures, causing widespread range contraction and population declines. However, how climate-driven disruptions will affect freshwater fish persistence under future thermal extremes remains poorly understood. Here, using weekly water temperature data (1976–2099), we assess the vulnerability of 9,809 freshwater species to short- and long-term thermal extremes and show that gradual warming can trigger abrupt thermal exposure. Tropical regions experience a high proportion of species at risk, whereas non-tropical regions face severe thermal extremes. We introduce the concept of thermal fragmentation exposure to understand how heterogeneous warming fragments freshwater habitat, thereby amplifying local extinction risks. Around 63% of riverine fish will experience more persistent thermal barriers under a high-emissions scenario, with thermal fragmentation accelerating over time. These findings underscore the urgent need for targeted conservation strategies to safeguard freshwater fish biodiversity.
Metadata
| Item Type: | Article |
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| Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © The Author(s) 2026. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
| Dates: |
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| Institution: | The University of Leeds |
| Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Geography (Leeds) > River Basin Processes & Management (Leeds) |
| Date Deposited: | 04 Sep 2026 12:51 |
| Last Modified: | 04 Sep 2026 12:51 |
| Status: | Published |
| Publisher: | Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
| Identification Number: | 10.1038/s41558-026-02731-9 |
| Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:244744 |
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